Nurses Online Digital Playground

Sociedad Mexicana de Padres bad

With all due respect to the Popes. Excellent
Thursday afternoon.


DEAR SON
While living in this house will obey the rules. When you have your home will obey your own rules. This does not rule democracy, did not campaign to be your father, you do not vote for me. We are father and son by the grace of God, and I respectfully accept the privilege and responsibility terrifying. By accepting acquire a duty to play the role of fathers.
I'm not your buddy, our ages are very different. We share many things but we are not peers. I am your father And that is a hundred times more than a friend!.

I am also your friend, but we are in completely different levels. In this house you'll do as I say and you should not question me because everything that I ordered will be motivated by love. You will be hard to understand until you have a son, meanwhile trust me ...

MOST OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE ARE LIVING THROUGH BOTH BUENA ONDA PAPA.
To take into account ... Disclaimer

Honor, Shame, Respect, Elementary Principles.

Well, but ... What happens to us? Which is what leads us to assume that someone else has the responsibility of caring for our children, if we who are supposed we are the most in love, we do not take that responsibility?

It's ridiculous that those committees in which public officials, owners of bars and clubs, committee members, citizens and the media blame each other for something that is just irresponsible of us parents.

That if in the bars they sell alcohol to minors, that if the traffic police take bribes, if not close these places at the appointed time, that young people leave these places, totally drunk. " But where are the parents of this child who took over account?

Who gets at home at that hour and in that state?
Who gave the money to enter the bar, for alcohol and bribery?
Where are the parents who gave the car to a minor who is not able to take responsibility and drive even when taken?

Please! In what parents think of those young people who leave home at 11 pm, having started to take from the evening, during the game or Striped Tiger?
What are parents thinking of the young girl of 16 or 17, he'll get back to raid mom twinkie, not wanting to hear that the mother did not even is in town?

do we want to pass the responsibility to decide in whose hands they put their life if they are not yet able to decide what color to paint the hair, today highlighted hair, black better tomorrow? Why

permission we give our daughters to go to sleep after the drive home from a friend and they carry the responsibility to take the couple of 19 or 20 years, who knows what time and we do not know how, because might take over Why do we believe they are mature and responsible if we ourselves are not we being?
We become blind to the dangers of convenience, we become the "cool", "is that I do it I have confidence in my daughter ".

What we have is fear and laziness, we do not act as parents.

Our children need not be his friends ... They already have plenty of friends, his age.
Our children need courageous and responsible parent, to underpin basic principles and then put rules are there to see it fulfilled.
How will rely on the safety of my son's a nightclub bartender? ? or traffic officer, or if the club owner does not comply with the law and closes at 6:00 am instead of 3:00 am?

I think they should have a schedule, "But the parents brought to their home regardless of time to close the clubs.

What we are afraid, Dad?
Why can not we put rules?
Why can not we demand that?
Why abandon our children to pursue our own comfort?

If young people do not need a guide if needed no limits and no authority to whom respect ... parents would not exist. We commissioned a very special mission, the largest: cooperate with God in creation and it is us who will hold us accountable for our children, not the owner of the bar, and the friend of our son who was driving drunk when he crashed, or the boyfriend who is looking at how quickly and how well it handles "controls" the car still being drunk, or the police, not the teacher ... anyone else!

Never, no one can make our children return home on time and safe, if we can not do it. There is no law, no schedule, no officer can do for our children, we do not want to do.

act as a parent is very difficult, and of course, hear from them "is that all are afraid of you, Dad" , it does not matter! We are not

election campaign for dad most popular time of year, it and every parent who has touched him and it would be stupid to jeopardize the safety of our children to look good and be liked and friends even more stupid to use our children as instruments of revenge against our failed relationships in this age of so many parents divorced.

is horrible to hear of deaths of guys like that have had the misfortune of running into these other young children of "cool." Even hear of deaths of children due to accidents or murders that have not been in the care of his mom and / or mother. It's amazing to see the children (as) playing alone in the street without a care and it's amazing to see our young people stuck in the clubs over the weekend drinking and taking drugs many times either by their own volition and / or favored by so many people without morals, without scruples It would be nice to win the respect of our children , taking charge of your life, making us responsible for your arrival time, of what they take, their skills, letting them know what we expect of them and creating the means to help in their fight to get it. Let your feet on the ground, we aware ...

Young people and children, all they need, as parents!

"BAD PARENT COMPANY MEXICANA" BUT WE WANT OUR CHILDREN. AND ALSO WE WANT OUR MEXICO AND PEOPLE WANT TO BE INVOLVED AND MAKE FOR A BETTER FUTURE FOR ALL

ME JOIN THE CAMPAIGN.

Transfer Pe License To Washington

Chichi's Birthday

BIRTHDAY Chichi.

Chichi, a woman "too old", she asks her son:
- "Nene" (the kid is 62 years, calculate the age of the mother)
- If mom says the baby

- I have a meeting with girls and I'd like to organize it a little ...

- As no mom, rest assured that I will arrange everything.
- Fix, so what??
- The party mom!
- Oh yes! I had forgotten.

That evening the son called his mother to the kitchen and shows him a
paper stuck on the refrigerator:

1 - serving tea
2 - 3
serve sandwiches - served more tea
4 - serve cookies

How nice! said the lady, now I have no problems ...
thank you "baby" This evening arrive

"girls" ... Chichi
good hostess, arranges them in the living room, he excuses himself and goes to the kitchen ...
Lee:

1. Serve tea

And there it takes tea with her friends, in a charming table ..
Soon to talk about current events (Chichi Do you remember when in 1931 ... )

Chichi, nervous, goes to the kitchen and read again:

1. Serve tea

and serves more tea .......... and 4 times.
girls finally leave.

One whispers to another as they leave the building:

- Tota, which saw Chichi bad host! Neither gave us tea!

Tota, responds:
- Chichi, Chichi to talk to me?? That night

Chichi's son comes home from his mother and was surprised, seeing that the packages are intact sandwiches and pastries. Asks

- Mama happened?? Chichi
replied:

- You believe that the girls did not come!

NooooooooNo can be. Nooooooo, the same will not happen??

meet me NOW, RECOGNIZE THAT WE STILL !!!!!!

JA JA JA

Does Illinois Drivers License Have Hologram

Comparative NDVI

Mariano Somoza us from Argentina, the project GRASSWEKA (www.grassweka.com.ar), an interface between GRASS (you know, my favorite GIS software:)) and WEKA , a powerful learning tool box artificial oriented data mining programmed in Java. Shellscript GRASSWEKA is set, and designed to work on a linux server via the command line, with apparently very intuitive syntax, and Castilian.

The first application example proposed is the modeling of species distributions from occurrence data and environmental variables, providing a surface resulting binary presence / absence potential, obtained from different algorithms .

Mariano has given a practical application that let a data and a couple of years here, and I am very grateful that it has kindly mentioned in the acknowledgments of your project.

I hope that at some point, if possible, have the opportunity to test the software. Especially in the CEAMA, where I am sure GRASSWEKA find a place within our Repository of models.

A hug and good luck, Mariano

Skin Moisturizer Crisco

GRASSWEKA oak, and pine enebral stocking in Sierra Nevada

In line with the previous post, I leave a video comparing the NDVI time series of oak, the oak and pine reforestation of the Sierra Nevada. Innovation shows no respect to the above video (it has the same look and feel "), but it's interesting: The

• resemble the oak and pine reforestation.
• The "peaks" and "valleys" as pronounced in the oak.

The valleys of oak are well explained by marcescent Pyrenean oak, which looks dead leaves during winter.

peaks reach their peak in spring 2004, but then does not happen again with the same magnitude in the next 7 years, while the valleys are more delivered during the same period. "Bad times for the Pyrenean oak?.

Domension Bogart Contessa Sofa

Time series of NDVI in the oak forests of the Sierra Nevada

plants to perform photosynthesis, actively absorb only a portion of the visible light spectrum (called PAR: Photosynthetically Active Radiation ) , covering wavelengths from 0.4 to 0.7 microns (micrometers). Wavelengths between 0.7 and the 1.1 microns (corresponding to the near infrared) are reflected by the leaves, because they negatively affect the photosynthetic apparatus from excess heat.

This difference in absorption / reflection of light is useful for determining photosynthetic activity of plants from remote sensing. A remote sensor captures the light reflected from the surface of the earth, and stores the intensity values \u200b\u200bof different wavelengths in different bands. For example, the sensor VEGETATION on SPOT 4 and 5 work with four bands (global expansion at a spatial resolution of about 1100 meters per cell, with daily temporal frequency): B0

• 0.43 to 0.47 microns (blue)
• B2 0.61 to 0.68 microns (red)
  
• B3 0.79 to 0.89 microns (near infrared)
  
• MIR 1.58 - 1.75 microns (medium infrared)
  

With these data, the best way to get an estimate of photosynthetic activity of vegetation is to use NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) is calculated by the equation: NDVI = (B3-B2) / (B3 + B2). Possible outcomes have a range from -1 (no activity) and +1 (maximum activity).



To avoid the masking effect produced by clouds, images of VEGETATION sensor are processed to retain the maximum value of NDVI in periods of 10 days, with the S10 products (ten-day Synthes), available free on free.vgt.vito.be .

I downloaded the series on the European continent in the 1999-2010 period to focus on NDVI analysis of the oak forests of Quercus pyrenaica in Sierra Nevada, consisting of 432 images in HDF . GRASS GIS is a specific module to import these images called i.in.spotvgt , which processes them ready for use.


From this set of images, I have analyzed the time series of NDVI of the different populations Quercus pyrenaica in Sierra Nevada (grid of black border on the map above). A byproduct of this analysis is the following video, which shows the series of NDVI images of Sierra Nevada, and graph the maximum, average and minimum for all populations.




To create this video I used:

• GRASS to generate maps.
• R (pack Zoo) to generate graphs of time series.
• Imagemagick to unite couples of images of the same dates.
• avi mencoder to generate all images.
• Audacity to edit audio (although there was much room for improvement ...)
  
• pitivi to generate the final video and audio transitions.
  

A more interactive animation (and with better quality image) you can see here (expected to load all the pictures, and press the play button and not see anything, patience).

Later I will discuss the test results, and if there is popular demand, I will prepare the scripts for the video.

Greetings!

Spacewalker Mv42v1.3 Windows Xp

The abortion: a big business in Mexico

55 000 abortions since legalization in Mexico, a multibillion

[03/28/2011]

anti-life organization Population Council considered "extraordinary" results of the legalization of abortion in Mexico City, where in less than four years, 55 000 abortions performed before 12 weeks gestation.

In statements published by the daily Milenio, the representative of the Population Council, Sandra Garcia, also applauded the City's health services because in an evaluation by "several organizations" reached a score of 8.8 points.

However, Speaking to CNA Leticia Gonzales Luna, president of Public Voice, reported that "there is no track how abortion mills are operating in Mexico City. All we know is that legalized a multimillion dollar business that allows impunity. "

"That is a success that has killed more than 50 000 children does not mean success for women," he said and recalled that they did "studies to legalize abortion four years ago were the organizations that are the sell the tools to become abortions. "

"The survey presented Sandra Garcia is the agency which is the main abortion mill in the world, and will not bring to light something that goes against something that they promoted, "he said.

Gonzales said he "has not been given the lower track" women who have abortions in Mexico. "They applied abortion and do not know what happens to them after they leave the clinic " said CNA.

"It is sad to die so applaud the thousands of children. It's a shame that the City is becoming a tourist to abort what is happening and it is proliferating who has the gall to advertise it until today is a crime, "he said.

Gonzales recalled that "a woman who has aborted a victim that usually returns to abortion and upon entering that circle in which the pain feels off about justifying what they do and encouraging them to do the same as other they did "

Source: CNA

! Pray, have faith and hope that the worry is useless!

Padre Pio

How Much Did It Cost To Repair A Spinning Bike

was a journey of 50 days and among them was a faithful Christian all the crew who mocked. A Christian sailor.



One night exploded the engine room and sank the ship only survived the sinking of the Christian faithful.





The only survivor of a shipwreck on a small island was deserted. I was praying fervently, asking God to rescue him. Daily reviewed the horizon for help, but this never came.



already tired, eventually began to build a small cabin to protect themselves and their few possessions.



One day he went fishing and ran back to see that his hut was burned and could not save anything. Having lost everything, wandered like a sleepwalker on the island, and without hope.





The wreck was confused and angry with God and in tears said, 'How could you do this? ", And fell asleep on the hammock.



Temprano a la mañana siguiente, escuchó asombrado la sirena de un buque que se acercaba a la isla.

¡Venían a rescatarlo!.



Al llegar sus salvadores les preguntó:
'¿Cómo sabían que yo estaba aquí?'.
Y ellos les respondieron:
'Vimos las señales de humo que nos hiciste...'



Es fácil enojarse cuando las cosas van mal, pero no debemos perder La Fe en Dios , porque Dios está trabajando en nuestras vidas en medio de las penas y el sufrimiento. para darnos crecimiento espiritual y más Fe en El



Remember the next time your little hut is burning. . . . Do not lose faith may simply be a smoke signal that arises from the GRACE OF GOD. For all the negative things that happen to us, we always say to ourselves:



GOD IS ALWAYS A POSITIVE RESPONSE TO ALL THE NEGATIVE THINGS. Courtesy

Carlos Sandoval.

Throat Hurts Not Strept

Signs of God for water

HELP DISTRIBUTE THIS MESSAGE TO CREATE SOME AWARENESS

for water ...

never seen anything like it.

A Koala Bear to see some cyclists, overcame his innate fear and dared to ask for water!

and yet ...

doubts global warming ?????

still generating waste and CO2 emissions??

"Until we enjoy the opportunity to love an animal a part of the soul remains asleep." Take


awareness of what we are doing with the world.

"CAN CHANGE HOUSE, COUNTRY ....

BUT YOU CAN NOT CHANGE THE PLANET

Small Dog Ate Loaf Of Bread

Habitat fragmentation in arid areas: Environmental Management article


Online First is now our "new" article in the journal Environmental Management . I say "again" because this project, the idea of \u200b\u200bmy thesis director in July Peñas, we did in 2005 when I had just started on this.

was very hard work of collecting, processing and photo interpretation of aerial imagery with field validation, when I just played with Idrisi. We analyze time series of images to establish the sequence of habitat fragmentation Linaria nigricans, fragmentation measured using different metrics, and design a metric itself (fragmentation or Fragmentation cadence Cadence, based in the SPLI, see Jaeger 2000, Landscape Ecology) indicating the relative speed of the fragmentation process and allows comparison between different locations regardless of the surface (see image below).

This figure compares the rates of the fragmentation process habitat for four populations of the species: S (Salinas de Cabo de Gata), C (Campohermoso), T (Tabernas), P (Playas de Pulpí).

From these data establish the conservation status of different populations and do a weather forecast that may take time to disappear.

This article has been in a drawer for years, I guess for lack of sufficient experience to meet the challenge of publishing. Luckily it was decided in July, and between all group mates gave him a good polishing. It has been an unspecified number of rejections, but there it is ... Attachments are

have information related to this article the following links:

• Plant diversity loss in arid Ecosystems: the habitat of Linaria nigricans in SW Europe (poster)
• fragmentation analysis of spatial patterns and effects on populations of Linaria nigricans ( poster) ç
• The decline Linaria nigricans, a plant of the arid southeast (article in Quercus)
• Effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on the conservation of endemic Linaria nigricans (SE Spain)
• Assessing extinction-risk species of endangered plants using distribution models: a case study of habitat depletion Caused by the spread of greenhouses (article)

Greetings

Bala Shark Looks Bloated

A pair of tickets on biogeography (cedars and beavers)

In an entry I left a while ago on Abies alba and Abies pinsapo a friend named Adrian has left some interesting comments. Adrian also has a blog "incipient" (his own palabrlas) called Yurakuna . In this blog I link to you two entries that I found very interesting about the cedar and the beaver. Here goes:

Cedar: King forgotten our mountains

Beaver Persecution in Spain

Regards, and thanks to Adrian for their contributions.

Older Babes In Girdles

Links to articles on general biology course

Then I leave some links to some interesting articles on general biology to answer some interesting questions (if relevant, and explain what they do here):

you still natural selection acting on the modern man:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4948740/blas_benito/articulos/Dobzhansky_1956.pdf

How common is hybridization in plants? are those hybrids fertile?:
http://dl .dropbox.com/u/4948740/blas_benito/articulos/Ellstrand_1996.pdf

Are adaptive mutations?
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4948740/blas_benito/articulos/Foster_2007.pdf

Why was causing the problem of rejection in organ transplants?
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4948740/blas_benito/articulos/Frohn_2001.pdf

The evolution of fungi
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4948740/blas_benito/articulos / James_2006.pdf

Is it possible that horizontal transfer of genes to produce new species?
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4948740/blas_benito/articulos/Lawrence_2002.pdf

Have speciation run experiments in the lab?
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4948740/blas_benito/articulos/Rice_1993.pdf

a greeting

Does The Shock Belt Really Work

GBIF models

has opened the application period to the traditional workshop Ecological Niche Modeling National Node of GBIF. This morning we announced Cristina Villaverde through AHIM-L list of RedIris:

Dear colleagues:

From the Coordination Unit of GBIF in Spain you are informed that now open the registration period for Seventh Workshop GBIF Ecological Niche Modeling with biodiversity data. The course will be held 10 to 13 May 2011 in the computer room of the Royal Botanical Garden (CSIC) in Madrid.

This practical workshop will explore the basic concepts to biological data analysis through modeling and management tools such as Open Modeller or MaxEnt. This time the workshop will be led by Blas M. Benito (Centro Andalusian Environment) and work on a virtual machine Ubuntu Linux where they will be installed and configured all the necessary materials. Applications should be sent to info@gbif.es before April 8, 2011.

All information about the workshop and the relevant application form, find it here at: http://www.gbif.es/ formaciondetalles.php? IDForm = 87

See you in Madrid!

Can You Swim With Bouyancy Belt

Migramar

Global Change, Migration altitudinal and colonization of degraded habitats in Mediterranean mountains (Migramar) is the name of the new Research Excellence Project of the Junta de Andalucía in our laboratory is involved. Participants



The project is led by Dr. Regino Zamora , Professor of Ecology at the University of Granada, and participate:

Dr. Josep Peñuelas (CREAF)
Dr. Adrián Escudero ( URJC)
Dr. Craig A. Allen (USGS)
Hódar Dr. José Antonio Correa (UGR)
Dr. Lluis Brotons (Centre Technologic Forestal de Catalunya)
Dr. Thomas Carlo (University of Washington)
Dr. David Nogués Bravo (University of Copenhagen)
Dr. Gregorio Moreno-Rueda (EEZA-CSIC) Dr. Lorena López
-Aparicio (INIA)
Dr. Luis Cayuela (URJC)
Dr. Francisco Javier Bonet (CEAMA-UGR)
Dr. Luis Matias (UGR)
Navarro Irene Eng (CEAMA- UGR)
Ldo. Antonio J. Luque Pérez (CEAMA-UGR)

soon be added to this list: Dr. Fabio SUZARTE
Albuquerque (CEAMA-UGR)
Dr. Ramón Pérez Pérez (CEAMA-UGR)
Ldo. Moreno Ricardo Llorca (CEAMA-UGR)

and if all goes well, a server.


hypothesis

The project is based on two assumptions made based on each of the drivers of Global Change: Climate Change and Land Use.

1. Climate Change: Global warming causing a rise in altitude of plant populations, resulting in an altitudinal advance front, active demographic, and a front retraction, in which there is a loss of vitality of individuals.
2. Land Use Change : The abandonment of crops allows the recolonization of degraded habitats, causing a front cross-feed.

Workplace and target species

The workplace is the National Park of Sierra Nevada, and the target species are Pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica), the juniper (Juniperus communis ), and their dispersing birds: the Jay (Garrulus glandarius ) and gender groups Turdus .





Objectives The overall project goal is to reconstruct the past Migramar populations of both species by photo-interpretation of American Flight 56 \u200b\u200b compared to the current situation ( orthophoto, 2007) know the current population dynamics and scattering, and calibrate future distribution models. These objectives are divided into four blocks (which are practically sub-projects) as summarized in the following image.

In this link you can download an outline (which is still maturing) on \u200b\u200brelations between different blocks with the biological process that we study.

The project is ambitious in terms of effort required to achieve the objectives. Large number of hectares to photo interpretation, many hours in the sample plots with steep slopes and slopes, and more hours to work in computer information systems, analyzing data and designing the "machine" simulation. But it is an exciting project that opens many doors to collaboration with leading scientists, and we will grow as a research group. Gradually

'll tell the project. Greetings

Side Effect Of Blunt Paper

How good are the models? Mindmaps

Please note, part of this post is a free translation from the last paragraph of " Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences " Posted By Naomi Oreskes , Kristin Shrader-Frechette and Kenneth Belitz in Science February 1994. Recently

the journal Diversity and Distributions "(sorry I do not put the link, it is my sad retaliation: P) has rejected a job dealing with potential climate change effects on plant diversity in Andalusia (see Chapter 8 of my thesis ). Rejection is a normal thing in this world (even gives worth getting used to), and would have no importance, but for one of the associate editor's comments:

" .. You Should Not Be over-confident with your results and models. A model is a model, NOT the truth. "

I never had confidence concealment in the models that work (though perhaps not been adequately reflected in the article), but with my "work" I have learned what their weak points, and I've been critical of them (especially the last chapters of my thesis.) Although I have not personally, these words do have made me re-think my understanding of "what" are the models and what they are. And I have remained as before, but I remembered this article by Oreskes, that ends with a section that I love. Here it goes:

As the philosopher Nancy Cartwright models are "works of fiction" because some properties attached to objects in the model can be genuine properties of the modeled object, but others are simply desirable properties.

Oreskes et al. continue to say that as a novel, a model may be convincing, you can "real sound" if it is consistent with our experience about the world. But just as we ask the extent to which fictional characters are drawn from real life and how is fictitious, the model should ask: how many of the components of the model are based on observation and measurement, and how much is based exclusively on suitable values?. (Oreskes et al. 1994)

Indeed, returning to the case, when we model the distribution of a species and project the model into the future, there is no possibility of knowing how close the model a reality yet has been given, and therefore, the result can be considered pure fiction (or at least "unverifiable.") But these models are not made with the intention of determining the exact locations of the species Fulanita fulanoides be gone the year 2058 at 4 pm because that is not possible. These models are made with the intention of determining the upper and lower limits of the potential situation, and to document the range of possible outcomes.

that's all folks!

Books On Snipe Sailboats

conversion: from VYM to Freemind

VYM Freemind and applications to design are two fairly comprehensive mental maps. But have no consistent format for exchanging maps between them. In this case quickly explain how to export a Freemind map directly VYM.

To make the conversion you need the following items:

1. A Linux OS to the program xsltproc installed.
2. VYM A mind map (mini-example to download here is called prueba.vym).
3. The xslt stylesheet I have called vym2freemind.xslt (the original is here ).

Assuming you have both the mental map as the style sheet in your home directory, unzip prueba.vym. In the resulting folder (prueba.vym_FILES) prueba.xml copy the file to your folder. Now that you

vym2freemind.xslt and prueba.xml in your folder, just open a terminal and type: xsltproc

vym2freemind.xslt prueba.xml> prueba.mm

Press Enter, and if all goes well , will in your file folder prueba.mm, which can be opened with Freemind.

That's it.

Emulators That Trade Pokemon Mac

distribution models applied to conservation of Andalusia

recently from the Department of Geodiversity and Biodiversity of the Ministry of Environment of the Junta de Andalucía and EGMASA I commissioned the project "Flora Distribution Models for assisting decision making in conservation plans."

The project objective is to obtain distribution patterns of high-resolution (40 meters) to assist in defining the areas of activity of 108 species of threatened flora of the following conservation plans:

• Reintroduction Plan, Conservation and Management Flora of Altas Cumbres.
• Conservation and Recovery Plan of Petridófitos
• Conservation and Recovery Plan Plants Dunes, Coastal and Litoral Arenales

The Flora Conservation Department gave us the necessary information on the distribution of species (from the FAME; Flora Threatened Andalucía). With presence records (a total of 43,912) calibrate models using MaxEnt, using 55 predictor variables (topography, climate, hydrology, thematic layers, frequencies and distances to various entities, and Landsat bands). As a result, for each species got:

• A model Distribution: raster map where each cell contains the probability 40x40 presence of the species.
• A vector file of potential presence of the species: a summary of the previous model, and defines the areas of highest probability of presence.

Of the 108 species models got 89, which classified them into three groups:

• Applicable: 53 models appropriate for the project.
• Caution: 20 models to be applied carefully, because they have achieved a good fit, either by the low number of presences or for other reasons. Discard
• : 16 models is better or looking through a very bad fit. Last 17

February, with work already completed, I met with the leaders to show the results and deliver the material, and things went pretty well (at least so it seemed!). I thank you from here their interest and involvement (and hold my talk for two hours), Fernando Ortega Alegre, Carmen Rodriguez Hiraldo, José Rafael López and Antonio Garrido J. Sanchez Almendros

I am particularly pleased with the project because it is the first time that distribution models are applied to the management of threatened flora in Spain. I am happy to contribute if only indirectly on the conservation of our flora, and especially using a tool that come trusting several years.

That's it!

Gay Cruising Areas In Tempe

VII workshop ecological niche modeling

For several years Coordination Unit of GBIF Spain organizes workshops ecological niche modeling. Yo I went to the first one in 2005, taught by Dr. David Draper, and was an important first step to improve the rudimentary knowledge of distribution modeling was at that time. I also attended the same workshop in 2007, this time conducted by Dr. Francisco J. Bonet, and by chance was the beginning of the career opportunities that I enjoy at this time (but that's another story.)

The last three years The workshop was conducted by Dr. Elisa Liras ( here is the content of the last ), but this time it seems that Elisa was not available, contacted Curro Bonet, and he was kind enough to spend the gift to me.

So 10 to 13 May this year I will be in the computer room of the Royal Botanic Gardens Madrid giving the workshop.

I am currently preparing the agenda, so for now I can not give many details. Yes I can say that (if all goes as it should) work on Ubuntu (the virtual machine prepared for subject "Ecoinformatics" ) And as main tools we use MaxEnt , OpenModeller , + Quantum GIS GRASS and R . Try from the basics of distribution models to more advanced applications, such as invasibility studies, effect of climate change on species distribution, and give us time.

If you are interested, stay tuned to the section "Education and Outreach" (not yet open enrollment period.)

Greetings and see you in Madrid!

What Does The Shock Belt Do

article in Climatic Change: Effects of Warming del clima en la vegetación de Sierra Nevada

few months ago I wrote the entry "Your manuscript has-been Accepted ... ", which had the" adventures and misadventures "lived to publish the paper" Simulating Potential effects of climatic warming on altitudinal patterns of key species in Mediterranean-Alpine Ecosystems "which is an improved version of my work get the DEA (and written in 2007), and has finally been published in the journal Climatic Change . Then I do a small summary of the paper.

One of the effects of climate change observed in plants is the latitudinal and altitudinal displacement of populations. In this displacement occur at the edges of stocks advancing fronts (areas of new colonization) front and back (areas of local extinction). To explore this issue further in Sierra Nevada, this paper simulates changes in the potential distribution of four vegetation types (oak, holm-padded brushwood and grass enebral psicroxerófilo) along the XXI century on four climate change scenarios with two objectives:

1. assess the potential effect of climate warming on the Potential area of \u200b\u200bvegetation.
2. Describe and apply a simple method called Differential Approval, which allows you to locate fronts advance and retreat of populations, and predict the potential succession patterns between different formations.

The modeling method was fairly simple. Calibrate models of potential distribution (eye, potential distribution refers to the habitat conditions for the species as the variables used to calibrate the model, not the actual distribution) present for the four formations using MaxEnt , taking as input points presence of training and four predictor variables (mean annual temperature, humidity topographic index, average annual solar radiation and slope), and projected on each of the scenarios of climate warming at intervals of 15 years.

The first analysis did was to calculate the potential areal extent of each formation over time, resulting in something like this:

is clear the general downward trend, especially in formations characteristic of the higher areas.

The concept Suitability differential works like this: if we have two consecutive distribution patterns over time, the first you subtract the values \u200b\u200bof a second and get the change. Where the values \u200b\u200bare positive, improving the conditions for the species (possible fronts of progress) and which are negative, worse (possible front-back). The figure below explains the concept: you can see the model t0 ( to , the more intense the green, the better), the original model and expanded points of presence (b ), the model t1 (c , notes the ideal area shift); fitness differential (d , the more red, worse).

Now attention to the following idea: given species A and B, for which they have their own distribution models and future, if in a population of A fitness for A decreases while increases the suitability for B, then the ecological conditions are favoring that B replaces A.

I applied this concept to the four plant communities, and summarized the results in the following diagram, which represents the potential for substitution pattern among the four vegetation types:
Each node represents a vegetation type, and numbers (and arrows as sense and thickness) represent average habitat suitability populations. Within the nodes represents the change of fitness in training, and the arrows represent transfers between training eligibility. To better explain, I focus on the oak: the average fitness of populations of oaks goes from 48 to 3, while the actual populations of oak will win 19 points suitability for oaks. Therefore, we think that the oaks can build on the oak.

Of course, all the results of this study must be interpreted bearing in mind that working with models and scenarios, with all the uncertainty that that implies. The results should not be taken as predictions, but they provide indicators and allow us to gain new perspectives from which to confront the problem of climate change.

I hope you like the original!.